The January shift | Active Trader Commentary (2024)

Check the background of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC on FINRA's BrokerCheckand see
the Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC RelationshipSummary.

Investment Products • Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BELOW.

Banking products and services are provided by Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association, Member FDIC.

Important Note: Options and futures transactions are intended for sophisticated investors and are complex, carry a high degree of risk, and are not suitable for all investors. For more information, please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options and the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options prior to applying for an account. You can also view the E*TRADE Futures LLC Financial Information and Disclosure Documents. Also, there are specific risks associated with uncovered call writing, including the risk that the underlying stock could be sold at the exercise price when the current market value is greater than the exercise price the call writer will receive. Please read the Special Statement for Uncovered Options Writers before you trade. Moreover, there are specific risks associated with buying options, including the risk of the purchased options expiring worthless. Because of the importance of tax considerations to all options transactions, the investor considering options should consult his/her tax adviser as to how taxes may affect the outcome of different options strategies and each options transaction. Commissions and other costs may be a significant factor. An options investor may lose the entire amount of an investment in a relatively short time. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparison, statistics, or other technical data will be supplied upon request.

This material is a product of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC ("Morgan Stanley") and is not a research report or a product of a research department. Any opinions or recommendations expressed in this material may differ from those expressed by other Morgan Stanley personnel or affiliated entities.

E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley (“E*TRADE”) charges $0 commission for online US-listed stock, ETF, mutual fund, and options trades. Exclusions may apply and E*TRADE reserves the right to charge variable commission rates. The standard options contract fee is $0.65 per contract (or $0.50 per contract for customers who execute at least 30 stock, ETF, and options trades per quarter). The retail online $0 commission does not apply to Over-the-Counter (OTC) securities transactions, foreign stock transactions, large block transactions requiring special handling, futures, or fixed income investments. Service charges apply for trades placed through a broker ($25). Stock plan account transactions are subject to a separate commission schedule. All fees and expenses as described in a fund's prospectus apply. Additional regulatory and exchange fees may apply. For more information about pricing, visit etrade.com/pricing

Educational materials provided by Morgan Stanley are for informational purposes only. Any opinions or recommendations expressed in this material do not take into account individual investors' circ*mstances and are not intended to represent "recommendations" by Morgan Stanley of particular securities to particular customers. This information neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities by Morgan Stanley or its affiliates. No information presented is intended to constitute a recommendation by Morgan Stanley or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product, account type or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The views expressed may be subject to change at any time. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circ*mstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Futures margin, also known as a “performance bond,” is the amount of money you are required to deposit in your account to open and hold a futures position. Unlike margin trading in the equity market, futures margin is not a loan. The amount of initial margin (i.e., required upfront capital) is small relative to the notional value of the futures contract. A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit, which may work against you as well as for you. You may sustain a total loss of your initial investment, any additional funds deposited to maintain your position, or potentially amounts exceeding your initial investment or the prior days’ minimum regulatory requirements, and which may require you to deposit additional funds into your account to satisfy any resulting debits. If the funds in your account drop below the minimum regulatory requirement at any given time, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position or your position may be automatically liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit. As a general matter, E*TRADE Futures LLC does not permit physical delivery of commodities or digital assets. Customers that hold futures to maturity may be subject to immediate liquidation including at a loss and appliable fees.

The use of derivatives (futures, options and swap agreements) may create additional risks that would not be present in the underlying securities themselves, thus raising the potential for greater investment loss. Examples include a reduction in returns, increased volatility, exposure to the effects of leverage, and the risk that the other party in the transaction will not fulfill its contractual obligations.

    Securities products and investment advisory services offered by Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, Member SIPC and a Registered Investment Adviser. Commodity futures and options on futures products and services offered by E*TRADE Futures LLC, Member NFA Stock plan administration solutions and services offered by E*TRADE Financial Corporate Services, Inc., and are a part of Morgan Stanley at Work. Banking products and services provided by Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association, Member FDIC. All entities are separate but affiliated subsidiaries of Morgan Stanley. E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley at Work are registered trademarks of Morgan Stanley.

    System response and account access times may vary due to a variety of factors, including trading volumes, market conditions, system performance, and other factors.

    Statement of Financial Condition | About Asset Protection | Account Agreements and Disclosures | Quarterly 606 Report | Business Resiliency Plan

    ©currentYear E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved. E*TRADE Copyright Policy

    The January shift | Active Trader Commentary (2024)

    FAQs

    Is January a good month to buy stocks? ›

    To sum it up, January is typically a good month for stocks, particularly if markets enter the new year on the heels of strong gains in both November and December.

    Do stocks go up or down in January? ›

    While the average return in January has tended to be higher than the average return across the remaining 11 months, January was only the best-performing month 14 times in the past 96 years in US large cap, and eight times the past 45 years in US small cap.

    Is it better to sell stocks in December or January? ›

    The January effect is the supposed seasonal tendency for stocks to rise in the first month of the year. The January effect is said to occur when investors sell losing stocks in December for tax-loss harvesting and repurchase them after the New Year.

    What is the 11am rule in trading? ›

    It is not a hard and fast rule, but rather a guideline that has been observed by many traders over the years. The logic behind this rule is that if the market has not reversed by 11 am EST, it is less likely to experience a significant trend reversal during the remainder of the trading day.

    What is the 3-5-7 rule in trading? ›

    The 3–5–7 rule in trading is a risk management principle that suggests allocating a certain percentage of your trading capital to different trades based on their risk levels. Here's how it typically works: 3% Rule: This suggests risking no more than 3% of your trading capital on any single trade.

    How is the stock market doing in January 2024? ›

    January 2024 Market Summary

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.7%, and the NASDAQ added 1.0%. Large-caps fared better than Small-caps in January–the Russell 1000 index increased 1.4%, while the Russell 2000 dropped 3.9%. Growth outperformed value within both indices.

    Is January a bullish or bearish month? ›

    A positive January has historically been a bullish sign for stocks. Yale Hirsch, creator of the “Stock Trader's Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of 'As goes January, so goes this year.

    What month do stocks usually drop? ›

    The September effect highlights historically weak returns during the ninth month of the year, which could be aided by institutional investors wrapping up their third-quarter positions. In fact, looking at the chart above of monthly average returns, September averages the worst in the calendar year.

    What is the 10 am rule in stock trading? ›

    Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour. For example, if a stock closed at $40 the previous day, opened at $42 the next, and reached $43 by 10 a.m., this would indicate that the stock is likely to remain above $42 by market close.

    What is the strongest month for the stock market? ›

    According to Reuters, since 1945, April and December are tied as the best-performing months of the year for stocks, with an average return of 1.6%. (September is notoriously the worst, with an average loss of -0.6%.) During recessions, April's positive performances can be even more pronounced.

    What month is most common for stock crash? ›

    The October effect refers to the psychological anticipation that financial declines and stock market crashes are more likely to occur during this month than any other month. The Bank Panic of 1907, the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and Black Monday 1987 all happened during the month of October.

    How much money do day traders with $10,000 accounts make per day on average? ›

    Assuming they make ten trades per day and taking into account the success/failure ratio, this hypothetical day trader can anticipate earning approximately $525 and only risking a loss of about $300 each day. This results in a sizeable net gain of $225 per day.

    What is the 8 week hold rule? ›

    The 8-week hold rule, developed by Investor's Business Daily (IBD), states that if a stock gains upwards of 20% within 1-3 weeks of a proper breakout, it should be held for eight weeks, as such stocks often become the market's biggest winners.

    Who buys stocks when everyone is selling? ›

    But there's one group of investors who charge in to buy when stocks are selling off: the corporate insiders. How do they do it? They have 2 key advantages over you and me that provide them the edge during uncertain times. If you follow their lead, you can have that edge too.

    What is the best months to buy stocks? ›

    Mondays and Fridays tend to be good days to trade stocks, while the middle of the week is less volatile. Historically, April, October, and November have been the best months to buy stocks, while September has shown the worst performance.

    What month of the year do stocks go up? ›

    Since 1990, the S&P 500 has gained an average of about 2% from May through October. That compares with a roughly 7% average gain from November through April. This outperformance is seen not just in large-caps, but also small-cap and global stocks (as measured by respective S&P indexes).

    What will the market do in January 2024? ›

    January 2024 Market Summary

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.7%, and the NASDAQ added 1.0%.

    Should you buy stocks now or wait? ›

    The key to long-term investing success

    Time is your most valuable resource when building wealth in the stock market. So rather than waiting for the ideal time to invest, it's often better to buy now and hold your investments for the long term. Even if you invest at the "wrong" time, it can still pay off over time.

    Top Articles
    Latest Posts
    Article information

    Author: Domingo Moore

    Last Updated:

    Views: 6395

    Rating: 4.2 / 5 (73 voted)

    Reviews: 88% of readers found this page helpful

    Author information

    Name: Domingo Moore

    Birthday: 1997-05-20

    Address: 6485 Kohler Route, Antonioton, VT 77375-0299

    Phone: +3213869077934

    Job: Sales Analyst

    Hobby: Kayaking, Roller skating, Cabaret, Rugby, Homebrewing, Creative writing, amateur radio

    Introduction: My name is Domingo Moore, I am a attractive, gorgeous, funny, jolly, spotless, nice, fantastic person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.