Is it wise to get out of the stock market?
While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term.
Skittish investors may feel it's better to bail on the stock market than stay invested during volatile periods. However, investors generally lose out on significant returns by doing so, according to a Wells Fargo analysis. Markets are unpredictable.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
"Billionaire CEOs like [Jeff] Bezos, [Mark] Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon, and the Walton family are selling off massive amounts of their own stocks, and analysts think the CEOS may be bracing for an economic downturn," he said, adding, “An overheated stock market continues to climb to new heights as investors feed that ...
The Indian market has outperformed major global markets in the last one year as well as in the past decade. Given the outperformance of large-cap (23 percent) and mid-cap (58 percent) stocks in the past year, brokerage house Investec believes the probability of a correction (10 percent drawdown) in 2024 is high.
No one, including the company that issued the stock, pockets the money from your declining stock price. The money reflected by changes in stock prices isn't tallied and given to some investor. The changes in price are simply an independent by-product of supply and demand and corresponding investor transactions.
The Bottom Line
There are many reasons why it's better for investors to not sell into a bear market and stay in for the long term. This is why it's important to understand your risk tolerance, your time horizon, and how the market works during downturns.
A common rule of thumb is the 50-30-20 rule, which suggests allocating 50% of your after-tax income to essentials, 30% to discretionary spending and 20% to savings and investments. Within that 20% allocation, the portion designated for stocks depends on your risk tolerance.
How much should a 60 year old have in stocks?
For years, a commonly cited rule of thumb has helped simplify asset allocation. According to this principle, individuals should hold a percentage of stocks equal to 100 minus their age. So, for a typical 60-year-old, 40% of the portfolio should be equities.
If you're 70, you should keep 30% of your portfolio in stocks. However, with Americans living longer and longer, many financial planners are now recommending that the rule should be closer to 110 or 120 minus your age.
Near and current retirees are often encouraged to invest their money so it's able to grow. If you're 65, it means you may want to keep a notable portion of your portfolio in safer assets. It can still make a lot of sense for a 65-year-old to own stocks.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The answer if you just starting out is an unequivocal yes. Even though I am both by nature and training a contrarian trader, for whom buying at what could well be the top of a move feels inherently wrong, that isn't a factor when it comes to long-term regular investing.
Stock prices have surged significantly over the past 18 months. The S&P 500 is up by 45% since it bottomed out in October 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has soared by a whopping 58% in that time. Investing now, then, means paying much higher prices than you would if you'd bought a year or two ago.
If your goal requires quick access to cash, you'll likely opt to hold money in a savings account or similarly liquid space. On the other hand, if you're hoping for better returns on your money than can be achieved with savings account interest rates and over a long time, then investing may be the answer.
If you're looking to invest for your future -- five, 10, or 40 years from now -- now is as good a time as ever to buy stocks. Despite ongoing recession fears, it's important to remember the market is forward-looking. Stock values are based on future expected earnings.
