How are international stocks performing?
Despite divergent economic growth and some disappointment in parts of the world, international equity performance has been strong: up 10% year-to-date (in U.S. dollar terms).
Key Takeaways. U.S. stocks have outperformed global equities over the past 15 years, leading many investors to believe there is no good alternative. However, non-U.S. stocks may be attractive due to lower valuations, higher dividend yields and growth potential in select regions.
In essence, the U.S. has not been as expensive as perceived, and the rest of the world has not been as cheap. That may be the case again in 2024. Therefore, a strategy that includes U.S. and international stocks may continue to outperform one that excludes U.S. equities, even though non-U.S. markets appear cheaper.
Think long term
2024 may be a good time to look for bargains in international stocks that have the long-term potential to deliver higher returns than US stocks. Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) forecasts that international stocks will outperform US stocks over the next 20 years.
Markets outside the United States don't always rise and fall at the same time as the domestic market, so owning pieces of both international and domestic securities can level out some of the volatility in your portfolio. This can spread out your portfolio's risk more than if you owned just domestic securities.
This has been influenced by the uncertain economic and political environment during the COVID-19 pandemic, where investors have paid a premium for the lower volatility and more stable, predictable returns offered by U.S. equities.
Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence
Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.
Despite lagging in recent years, when you look historically: in the last 50 years, international stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in over 40% of all 10-year rolling time periods.
Start by allocating 15% to 20% of your equity portfolio to foreign stocks. That's the percentage I typically maintain in the Vanguard portfolios. It's meaningful enough to make a difference in your overall returns, but not so much that it will ruin your portfolio when foreign markets temporarily fall out of favor.
| Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
|---|---|
| SoundHound AI Inc. (SOUN) | 177.8% |
| Vera Therapeutics Inc. (VERA) | 180.4% |
| Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
Why buy international stocks now?
International stocks offer U.S. investors diversification, reducing reliance on domestic markets and potentially enhancing returns. Non-U.S. stocks can provide exposure to global economic growth, mitigate geopolitical risks and tap into industries not heavily represented domestically.
While a strong dollar may hurt US stocks, it also makes international stocks a bargain for US investors who want to diversify their portfolios.
| Fund | Ticker | Return % |
|---|---|---|
| Fidelity Global ex US Index | FSGGX | 7.20 |
| iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF | IXUS | 7.29 |
| Vanguard FTSE All-World ex US ETF | VEU | 7,45 |
| Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | VXUS | 7.39 |
The worst 10 year annual return was a loss of almost 5% per year ending in the summer of 1939. That was bad enough for a 10 year total return of -40%.
However, if you know that you'd like a bit more exposure to smaller and medium-sized companies or just want to invest in more stocks overall, VTI is your best bet. VOO, meanwhile, is the better option for investors who want to focus heavily on large cap companies.
| Fund | Symbol | 3-year average annual return |
|---|---|---|
| Victory RS Global Y | RGGYX | 8.16 |
| BNY Mellon Worldwide Growth A | PGROX | 7.59 |
| MFS Global Growth A | MWOFX | 4.83 |
| BlackRock Unconstrained Equity Instl | MAEGX | 8.66 |
Foreign large-growth and foreign large-value funds fill more specialized roles; we consider them “building blocks” that could make up as much as 15% to 40% of a portfolio's assets. Because of the higher risk inherent in emerging markets or region-specific funds, we recommend limiting them to 15% of assets or less.
Investors should take multiple factors into consideration when considering investing in international stocks, such as geographical location, level of development, and liquidity of the markets and complex tax regimes. Additionally, U.S. domestic securities can be just as risky as some foreign ones.
It is difficult for investors to understand all the political, economic, and social factors that influence markets, especially those abroad. Different levels of liquidity. Markets outside the U.S. may have lower trading volumes and fewer listed companies than U.S. markets. They may only be open a few hours a day.
Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January. Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term.
Is international trade growing?
Trade growth will improve this year but it will still be half the average rate in the decade before the pandemic. In fact, by the end of 2024, global trade will register the slowest half-decade of growth since the 1990s.
By far the largest economy to make the IMF's high growth projection list is India, the world's most populous country. Other Asian countries with strong growth prospects in 2024 include Mongolia (6.5%), Tajikistan (6.5%) and the Philippines (6.2%).
Dividend stocks from other parts of the world can help reduce your portfolio's overall risk. Orange, Enbridge, and Ambev are top companies that operate in many different countries and are based outside of the U.S. Their high payouts can provide you with some excellent recurring income.
ETFs that invest in a single foreign country may carry higher risks than international ETFs that spread their investments among many countries. If a single country undergoes a major recession or other financial hardship, an ETF that only invests in securities based there could have a major performance shortfall.
Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 92% to 154%, depending on the indicator, up from last month's 88% to 148%. This is the highest range we have seen since January 2022.
