How often do international stocks outperform US stocks?
Despite lagging in recent years, when you look historically: in the last 50 years, international stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in over 40% of all 10-year rolling time periods.
Key Takeaways. U.S. stocks have outperformed global equities over the past 15 years, leading many investors to believe there is no good alternative. However, non-U.S. stocks may be attractive due to lower valuations, higher dividend yields and growth potential in select regions.
US equities have dominated international equities over the past decade, but in the decade before that, it was international equities that were on a hot streak. The MSCI EAFE Index, which includes companies in emerging and developed markets, outperformed the S&P 500 Index seven times between 2000 and 2009.
In essence, the U.S. has not been as expensive as perceived, and the rest of the world has not been as cheap. That may be the case again in 2024. Therefore, a strategy that includes U.S. and international stocks may continue to outperform one that excludes U.S. equities, even though non-U.S. markets appear cheaper.
Markets outside the United States don't always rise and fall at the same time as the domestic market, so owning pieces of both international and domestic securities can level out some of the volatility in your portfolio. This can spread out your portfolio's risk more than if you owned just domestic securities.
Or is a strong dollar good? While a strong dollar may hurt US stocks, it also makes international stocks a bargain for US investors who want to diversify their portfolios.
Start by allocating 15% to 20% of your equity portfolio to foreign stocks. That's the percentage I typically maintain in the Vanguard portfolios. It's meaningful enough to make a difference in your overall returns, but not so much that it will ruin your portfolio when foreign markets temporarily fall out of favor.
While no single sector will beat the broad-market index all the time, investing in sector ETFs can pay off. With geopolitical tensions in the world, defense stocks are up this year, and that has made the Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD -0.18%) a winner.
One key reason the US equity market has performed so well relative to peers is that there are a disproportionate number of the world's most productive companies based in the United States. When we rank global companies based on returns on capital, US companies consistently stand out.
Global equity markets are likely to remain challenged in 2024 as the world transitions to a regime of higher trend inflation and interest rates. This transition could generate shifts in earnings growth expectations, triggering volatility. Close attention to risk management will be needed.
Will international stocks ever recover?
Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) forecasts that international stocks will outperform US stocks over the next 20 years. Indeed, they expect even mature, developed markets such as Europe to outperform the US over that time.
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023) | Average annual S&P 500 return |
---|---|
15 years (2009-2023) | 12.63% |
20 years (2004-2023) | 9.00% |
25 years (1999-2023) | 7.18% |
30 years (1994-2023) | 9.67% |
Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
---|---|
SoundHound AI Inc. (SOUN) | 177.8% |
Vera Therapeutics Inc. (VERA) | 180.4% |
Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
- RELX PLC ADR. RELX.
- Yum China Holdings Inc. YUMC.
- Airbus SE ADR. EADSY.
- Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV ADR. KOF.
- AstraZeneca PLC ADR. AZN.
However, if you know that you'd like a bit more exposure to smaller and medium-sized companies or just want to invest in more stocks overall, VTI is your best bet. VOO, meanwhile, is the better option for investors who want to focus heavily on large cap companies.
Investors who want to trade international stocks in their local currencies can open a specialized global account, if offered by their brokers. Benefits: You have a much wider selection for trading individual stocks overseas versus hunting for their U.S. versions.
Key Takeaways
A strengthening dollar means U.S. consumers benefit from cheaper imports and less expensive foreign travel. U.S. companies that export or rely on global markets for the bulk of their sales are financially hurt when the dollar strengthens.
Kuwaiti dinar
The Kuwaiti dinar (KWD) is the world's strongest currency, and this is for a number of reasons. For starters, Kuwait has one of the largest oil reserves in the world.
The main reasons to invest internationally are to capture higher expected returns and to diversify portfolios across a broader array of asset classes. This can lower the overall volatility of a portfolio and increase the likelihood of benefiting from the return premiums associated with different risk factors.
So, we maintain that most investors should probably have some type of exposure to non-U.S. stocks. We consider foreign large-blend funds to be core holdings that could make up as much as 40% to 80% of a portfolio's assets, although most investors will probably want to keep their exposure on the lower end of that range.
What is the best mix of US and international stocks?
International vs. US stocks aren't an either/or decision, but rather a both/and situation. For the best risk/reward tradeoff, a mix of about 60-70% US and 30-40% international has historically been a good combination.
Foreign markets can be more volatile than U.S. markets due to increased risks of adverse issuer, political, market or economic developments, all of which are magnified in emerging markets. Foreign securities are subject to special risks, including currency fluctuation and political and economic instability.
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has regularly recommended an S&P 500 index fund.
Fund | 2023 performance (%) | 5yr performance (%) |
---|---|---|
MS INVF US Insight | 52.26 | 34.65 |
Sands Capital US Select Growth Fund | 51.3 | 76.97 |
Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity | 49.56 | 111.67 |
T. Rowe Price US Blue Chip Equity | 49.54 | 81.57 |
The one time it's okay to choose a single investment
That's because your investment gives you access to the broad stock market. Meanwhile, if you only invest in S&P 500 ETFs, you won't beat the broad market. Rather, you can expect your portfolio's performance to be in line with that of the broad market.