How many months was the longest bear market?
The second-longest bear market, from 1980-82, lasted 622 days. If the current bear market lasts 630 days, you can expect it to wrap up during the first quarter of 2024. A separate analysis from ABC News found that the longest bear market lasted 61 months and ended in March 1942.
| Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
|---|---|---|
| March 2000 to October 2002 | 31 months | -49% |
| October 2007 to March 2009 | 17 months | -56% |
| February 2020 to March 2020 | 1 month | -34% |
| January 2022 to October 2022 | 10 months | -25% |
To date, the deepest, most destructive, and most prolonged bear market was the 1929-1932 slump that was accompanied by the Great Depression.
S&P 500 Says Goodbye to Its Longest Bear Market Since the 1940s. If it felt like it took ages for the S&P 500 to climb out of its bear market, that's because it did. The index was in bear market territory, or down 20% from a recent high, for 248 trading days, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Historically, the index has taken an average of 19 months to recover from bear market declines of 20% or more, as shown in the accompanying table.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The ongoing rally from the late September lows has now lasted eight months. For historical context, the longest bear market rally in history spanned from late March to mid-November 1938, lasting over seven months.
A recession will hit in 2024, according to Paul Dietrich, chief investment strategist of B. Riley. Even a mild recession could spark as much as a 40% stock crash, Dietrich told Business Insider. That's because the market is looking the most overvalued since the dot-com craze of 2001, he said.
It's likely that, if you invest in a bear market, you will at first sustain some losses that will test your nerve. Conversely, if you take profits as markets are rising, you will often see prices rise further after you have sold. However, with a long enough time horizon, you should expect to see positive results.
Bear 7: March 2000—September 2001
The market went down more than 36%, and this bear market lasted 546 days. In this time, an eight-month recession hit the country. The primary factor leading to the recession and market decline was a bust in the dot-com industry. The recession culminated when the 9/11 attacks happened.
What was the worst stock market crash in history?
The worst stock market crash in history started in 1929 and was one of the catalysts of the Great Depression. The crash abruptly ended a period known as the Roaring Twenties, during which the economy expanded significantly and the stock market boomed.
| Bull Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| October 2002 to October 2007 | 60 months | +101.5% |
| March 2009 to February 2020 | 132 months | +400.5% |
| March 2020 to January 2022 | 21 month | +114.4% |
| October 2022 to present | 10 months | +24.8% |
The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007–2009.
Investing in a bear market
According to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute study, the average 12-month return after the end of a bear market is 43.4%. The problem, of course, is that no one knows when the bear market will come to an end.
For example, it took the stock market just over two years to recover from the 1987 stock market crash. However, it took the market almost six years to recover from the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. For the financial crisis of 2008, it took close to five years for the stock market to bottom out and start recovering.
As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).
| Stock | 2024 performance through Feb. 29 |
|---|---|
| Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) | 204.7% |
| Vera Therapeutics Inc. (VERA) | 206.1% |
| SoundHound AI Inc. (SOUN) | 250% |
| Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) | 314% |
Stock Market Forecast 2024: Wall Street Price Targets
Growth is expected to improve in 2024. Analysts are calling for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.5%, Butters says. But not all of Wall Street is convinced.
On that score, today's valuation levels point to sub-par annual stock returns, with gains averaging 4% compared to the long-run average of 7%-8%. Analysts currently estimate 2024 U.S. corporate earnings of about $242 per share, which assumes companies will continue to expand their profit margins.
In the 694 days between 11 January 1973 and 6 December 1974, the New York Stock Exchange's Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark suffered the seventh-worst bear market in its history, losing over 45% of its value.
How many bear markets in a lifetime?
Assuming a 50-year investment horizon, you can expect to live through about 14 bear markets, give or take. Although it can be difficult to watch your portfolio dip with the market, it's important to keep in mind that downturns have always been a temporary part of the process.
- $S&P 500 Index(. SPX.US)$ had been in bear-market territory for 248 trading days; the longest bear market since the 484 trading days ending on May 15, 1948.
When the stock market declines, the market value of your stock investment can decline as well. However, because you still own your shares (if you didn't sell them), that value can move back into positive territory when the market changes direction and heads back up. So, you may lose value, but that can be temporary.
By January 2025, it is projected that there is probability of 61.47 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This is an increase from the projection of the preceding month where the probability was 62.94 percent.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
