What happened to the stock market in 1973?
The bear market that began in January 1973 was associated with what became known as the oil shock recession. Later that year, Arab oil producing nations instituted an oil embargo on the U.S. in retaliation for its support of Israel in the conflict known as the Yom Kippur War.
The early 1970s saw the U.S. beset with multiple challenges, including an energy crisis, the impending loss of the war in Vietnam, the Watergate scandal, and the resignation of President Richard Nixon. The stock market fell nearly 52%, contributing to a severe recession that lasted from 1974 to 1975.
The worst stock market crash in history started in 1929 and was one of the catalysts of the Great Depression. The crash abruptly ended a period known as the Roaring Twenties, during which the economy expanded significantly and the stock market boomed.
| Dow Jones Industrial Average - Historical Annual Data | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Average Closing Price | Year Low |
| 1974 | 759.13 | 577.60 |
| 1973 | 924.07 | 788.31 |
| 1972 | 950.08 | 889.15 |
Bull Market of 1970-1973: The Nifty Fifty
For nearly three years, the Nifty Fifty led the S&P 500 to generate average annual gains above 23%, but valuations eventually became stretched.
If the price of your stocks drops while you are holding it, you have not lost any money at all. Values fluctuate, but you are holding stocks, not money. It only becomes money again when you sell it. If you sell your stocks for less than you paid for them, only then have you lost money.
Economists have shown that stagflation was prevalent among seven major market economies from 1973 to 1982. After inflation rates began to fall in 1982, economists' focus shifted from the causes of stagflation to the "determinants of productivity growth and the effects of real wages on the demand for labor".
And the shocking leader of the bunch? President Calvin Coolidge, who took office in 1923, whose stock price performance change was a whopping 208.52%, for an average monthly return of 1.74%. That's the largest for any president since the start of the 20th century.
Economic downturns hurt the optimistic bullish investors but reward the pessimistic bearish investors. Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time.
Despite an uncertain economic outlook, the S&P 500 has rallied to new all-time highs in 2024 driven by remarkably strong underlying economic fundamentals. S&P 500 companies have reported their second consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter.
What stocks did well in 1973?
| ASSET | YEAR | % RETURN |
|---|---|---|
| Deere (DE) | 1973 | 13.53% |
| Medtronic (MDT) | 1973 | 8.87% |
| Matson (MATX) | 1973 | 6.27% |
| Becton Dickinson and (BDX) | 1973 | 1.97% |
But stock prices soared in 1995--arguably, the best year in history. A number of major money managers made switches out of equities into government bonds in early 1996--fearing high stock prices and a market sell off. But 1996 was again a strong year for most of the market.
The Bear Market of 1973-1974: The Oil Shock
The bear market that began in January 1973 was associated with what became known as the oil shock recession. Later that year, Arab oil producing nations instituted an oil embargo on the U.S. in retaliation for its support of Israel in the conflict known as the Yom Kippur War.
The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months. However, the current bull market, which has seen the S&P 500 rise 330% in its 10+ years, is still second to the 90s bull run, which returned 417%.
| ASSET | DECADE | % RETURN |
|---|---|---|
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | 1970s | 273.04% |
| Raytheon Technologies (RTX) | 1970s | 266.23% |
| WD-40 (WDFC) | 1970s | 257.89% |
| Chevron (CVX) | 1970s | 228.34% |
The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 965 days or 2.6 years. dot-com crash in March 2000 is technically the longest (a drop of 19.9% in 1990 nearly derailed that bull, but just missed the bear threshold).
No one, including the company that issued the stock, pockets the money from your declining stock price. The money reflected by changes in stock prices isn't tallied and given to some investor. The changes in price are simply an independent by-product of supply and demand and corresponding investor transactions.
Panic selling, when the stock market is going down, can hurt your portfolio instead of helping it. There are many reasons why it's better for investors to not sell into a bear market and stay in for the long term.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Because they invest in real estate, REIT performance may be less correlated to the stock market, making them a good hedge against crashes. As an added bonus, they generally pay higher dividends than many other investments.
The stagflation of that era ended with a global recession and a series of financial crises in EMDEs.
What president caused stagflation in the 1970s?
The Nixon shock has been widely considered to be a political success, but an economic failure for bringing on the 1973–1975 recession, the stagflation of the 1970s, and the instability of floating currencies. The dollar plunged by a third during the 1970s.
The Great Inflation was blamed on oil prices, currency speculators, greedy businessmen, and avaricious union leaders. However, it is clear that monetary policies that financed massive budget deficits and were supported by political leaders were the cause.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 21.9% under Biden, whereas it grew 44.6% for Trump. The Nasdaq composite index is up 13.8% under Biden and was up 62% for Trump.
Stock market returns are also higher under Democratic presidents. CNN reported in September 2020 that: “Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% during years when Democrats controlled the White House, according to CFRA Research.
Who Is the Greatest Investor of All Time? Investors buy and hold for longer-term growth rather than trade in and out every day. Warren Buffett is often cited as the most successful investor of all time through his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway.
